Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
